The Workforce of Tomorrow

The BLS develops projections of employment for the industries and industry groups that make up the economy as a whole. Because of expected shifts in consumer and

TABLE 5.1 Civilian labor force by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin, selected years 1984–2014 "Table. 4. Civilian Labor Force by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin, 1984, 1994, 2004, and Projected 2014," in BLS Releases 2004–14 Employment Projections, U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 7, 2005 (accessed March 21, 2006)

FIGURE 5.2 Labor force participation rates of women and men, 1954–2014 "Labor Force Participation Rates of Women and Men, 1954–2004 and Projected 2014," in "Labor Force," in Occupational Outlook Quarterly, vol. 49, no. 4, Winter 2005–06, U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://www.bls.gov/opub/ooq/2005/winter/art05.pdf (accessed March 21, 2006)

FIGURE 5.3 Labor force growth by race, projected 2004–14 "Percent Growth in Labor Force by Race, Projected 2004–14," in "Labor Force," in Occupational Outlook Quarterly, Winter 2005–06, http://www.bls.gov/opub/ooq/2005/winter/art05.pdf (accessed February 8, 2006)

business spending, employment growth rates will vary significantly among industries. As a consequence, the structure of industry employment will change over the period 2004 through 2014.

FIGURE 5.4 Labor force growth by ethnic origin, projected 2004–14 "Percent Growth in Labor Force by Race, Projected 2004–14," in "Labor Force," in Occupational Outlook Quarterly, Winter 2005–06, http://www.bls.gov/opub/ooq/2005/winter/art05.pdf (accessed February 8, 2006)

Changes in demand for an industry's products constitute the most important cause of differences in employment growth rates among industries. Technological change is another factor affecting industry employment. For example, automated equipment in manufacturing plants enables fewer workers to produce more goods, and its use is a major reason for declining employment in manufacturing. This decline in generally better-paying blue-collar jobs in manufacturing is a major reason that the earnings of the less educated have been falling since the 1980s. According to the BLS, average weekly earnings for men employed full-time with less than a high school education declined by 27.2% from $578 to $421 when adjusted for inflation between 1979 and 2002. ("Earnings by Educational Attainment and Sex, 1979 and 2002," Monthly Labor Review, October 23, 2003).

Changes in business practices also have an impact on employment. When businesses use contractors or temporary help services, they reduce their total employment. At the same time, employment rises for contractors and the temporary help supply services industry. This often means a loss of better-paying jobs and a gain in lower-paying jobs.

FIGURE 5.5 Change in wage and salary employment by industry sector, projected 2004–14 "Numeric Change in Wage-and-Salary Employment by Industry Sector, Projected 2004–14," in "Industry Employment," in Occupational Outlook Quarterly, Winter 2005–06, http://www.bls.gov/opub/ooq/2005/winter/art03.pdf (accessed February 7, 2006)

For analytical purposes, industries fall into the goods-producing sector and the services-producing sector. The divisions within the goods-producing sector are construction, manufacturing, and natural resources and mining, which includes agriculture. In the services-producing sector, the divisions are educational services, financial activities, health care and social assistance, information, leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, public administration, and trade, transportation, and utilities.

Job growth can be measured both by percentage and numerical change. The fastest-growing occupations do not necessarily provide the largest number of jobs. A larger occupation with slower growth may produce more openings than a smaller occupation with faster growth.

A number of the BLS projections contained in the winter 2005–06 issue of Occupational Outlook Quarterly FIGURE 5.6 Percent change in wage and salary employment by industry sector, projected 2004–14 "Percent Change in Wage-and-Salary Employment by Industry Sector, Projected 2004–14," in "Industry Employment," in Occupational Outlook Quarterly, Winter 2005–06, http://www.bls.gov/opub/ooq/2005/winter/art03.pdf (accessed February 7, 2006)concern services-producing industries, which are projected to account for all of the growth of wage and salary employment over the 2004 to 2014 period, with goods-producing employment actually declining from twenty-three million in 2004 to 22.9 million in 2014. Wage and salary employment in the services-producing sector (110.4 million jobs) accounted for 82.7% of the 133.5 million American jobs in 2004. Over the 2004 to 2014 period, services-sector jobs are projected to increase by almost nineteen million, to 84.9% of the job market. Goods-producing employment, meanwhile, is projected to decline over the same period and shrink from 17.2% to 15% of the job market.

Figure 5.5 and Figure 5.6 show projected wage and salary employment growth and decline in the number of workers from 2004 to 2014 in the various industry sectors. Professional and business services and health care and social assistance are the industry groups expected to have the largest wage and salary employment growth by FIGURE 5.7 Decline in wage and salary employment by detailed industry, projected 2004–14 "Numeric Decline in Wage-and-Salary Employment by Detailed Industry, Projected 2004–14," in "Industry Employment," in Occupational Outlook Quarterly, Winter 2005–06, http://www.bls.gov/opub/ooq/2005/winter/art03.pdf (accessed February 7, 2006)2014, with the professional and business services sector alone projected to increase by more than 4.5 million new jobs. Employment in manufacturing is expected to decline by 777,000 jobs (5%), and 110,000 job losses are expected in natural resources and mining (6%). Figure 5.7 shows the specific industries in which wage-and-salary declines are predicted. Topping the list, with an expected loss of 168,000 jobs by 2014, is wired telecommunications carriers. Of the twenty industries projected to lose the highest number of jobs by 2014, fifteen are in the manufacturing sector.

Services-Producing Industries

With a 79% increase in wage-and-salary employment expected, job growth in private educational support services is predicted to be the fastest-growing industry sector between 2004 and 2014, according to the BLS in Occupational Outlook Quarterly. Wage-and-salary jobs in the home health care services division over the 2004 to 2014 period are forecasted to grow by 69%. Other industries expecting to add to employment by 50% or more include management, scientific, and technical consulting services (60%), community care facilities for the elderly (55%), outpatient care centers (50%), and residential mental health and substance abuse acilities (50%). (See Figure 5.8.)

By 2014 most employment gains are expected to take place in the education and health care industries. Figure 5.9 shows the twenty industries projected for fastest growth between 2004 and 2014. According to the BLS, the employment services industry, which will add a projected 1.6 million new jobs between 2004 and 2014, is going to be the fastest-growing sector in terms of numeric growth in wage-and-salary employment, with more than a half-million new jobs expected in each of several other industries: government schools, colleges, and other education services (783,000), local government (764,000), physicians' offices (760,000), full-service restaurants (701,000), private hospitals (648,000), limited service eating establishments (592,000), and home health care services (537,000).

Factors contributing to growth in the home care health services industry include the aging population, which will require more services, and the greater use of innovative medical technology. Patients will increasingly be shifted out of hospitals and into outpatient facilities, nursing homes, and home health care in an attempt to contain costs. This will likely lead to a decline in hospital service staff, such as licensed practical nurses, since patients will be expected to take care of themselves or hire their own attendants. Table 5.2 lists the ten occupations that are expected to be the fastest-growing in terms of the percent of new jobs added between 2004 and 2014; all are related either to health and personal services or computers and technology.

Jobs in the professional and related occupations group are expected to grow by six million between FIGURE 5.8 Percent growth in wage and salary employment by detailed industry, projected 2004–14 "Percent Growth in Wage-and-Salary Employment by Detailed Industry, Projected 2004–14," in "Industry Employment," in Occupational Outlook Quarterly, Winter 2005–06, http://www.bls.gov/opub/ooq/2005/winter/art03.pdf (accessed February 7, 2006)2004 and 2014, an increase of 21.2%, according to the BLS in Economic and Employment Projections (December 7, 2005). Within that sector, employment in computer and mathematical sciences is expected to grow by approximately 967,000 jobs, an increase of 30.7%. Service occupations will add 5.3 million new jobs, a FIGURE 5.9 Numeric growth in wage and salary employment by detailed industry, projected 2004–14 "Numeric Growth in Wage-and-Salary Employment by Detailed Industry, Projected 2004–14," in "Industry Employment," in Occupational Outlook Quarterly, Winter 2005–06, http://www.bls.gov/opub/ooq/2005/winter/art03.pdf (accessed February 7, 2006)19% increase, and health care support occupations will reach nearly 4.7 million, an increase of 33.3%. (See Table 5.3.)

Goods-Producing Industries

Employment in the goods-producing sector is projected to vary over the 2004 to 2014 period. Construction and TABLE 5.2 The ten fastest-growing occupations 2004–14 "Table 3c. The 10 Fastest Growing Occupations, 2004–14," in 2004–14 Employment Projections, U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 7, 2005, http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecopro.t05.htm (accessed January 28, 2006)TABLE 5.3 Employment by major occupational group, 2004 and projected 2014 "Table 2. Employment by Major Occupational Group, 2004 and Projected 2014," in BLS Releases 2004–14 Employment Projections, U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 7, 2005, http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecopro.t02.htm (accessed February 7, 2006)extraction industries are expected to grow in employment opportunities 12% during this time. (See Figure 5.10.) Opportunities for employment in farming, fishing, and forestry and production industries, which include traditionally high-paying manufacturing jobs, are expected to decline over the decade 2004 to 2014. Positions in farming, fishing, and forestry are projected to be reduced by 1.3% and production jobs by 0.7%. (See Table 5.3.)

FIGURE 5.10 Employment growth by major occupational group, projected 2004–14 "Numeric Growth in Employment by Major Occupational Group, Projected 2004–14," and "Percent Growth in Employment by Major Occupational Group, Projected 2004–14," in "Occupational Employment," Occupational Outlook Quarterly, Winter 2005–06, http://www.bls.gov/opub/ooq/2005/winter.art02.pdf (accessed January 28, 2006)

TABLE 5.4 The ten occupations with the largest job growth, projected 2004–14 "Table 3d. The 10 Occupations with the Largest Job Growth, 2004–14," in BLS Releases 2004–14 Employment Projections, U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 7, 2005, http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecopro.t06.htm (accessed February 7, 2006)